Yeni Malatyaspor 0–1 Esenler Erokspor

Yeni Malatyaspor

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Esenler Erokspor

O. Kayode 30'

1/25/2025

1. Lig · Round 21Yeni Malatya Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Yeni Malatyaspor11%

×Draw17%

Esenler Erokspor72%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yeni MalatyasporExpected goals in this matchEsenler Erokspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.85

2.41

Yeni Malatyaspor

0.85

Esenler Erokspor

2.41

Esenler Erokspor creates 184% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 38 away

0.52

creates per match

1.71

3.10

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Yeni Malatyaspor

0.52

Esenler Erokspor

1.71

allows per match

Yeni Malatyaspor

3.10

Esenler Erokspor

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yeni Malatyaspor+0.00on par

Esenler Erokspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yeni Malatyaspor ↓

Esenler Erokspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–211%

0–39%

0–45%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–210%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–24%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Yeni Malatyaspor or draw

28%

Yeni Malatyaspor or Esenler Erokspor

83%

Draw or Esenler Erokspor

89%

Winning margin

Yeni Malatyaspor wins by 2+

3%

Esenler Erokspor wins by 2+

49%

Team goals

Yeni Malatyaspor 1+ goals

57%

Yeni Malatyaspor 2+ goals

21%

Yeni Malatyaspor 3+ goals

5%

Esenler Erokspor 1+ goals

91%

Esenler Erokspor 2+ goals

69%

Esenler Erokspor 3+ goals

43%

Draw no bet

Yeni Malatyaspor (draw refunded)

14%

Esenler Erokspor (draw refunded)

86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yeni Malatyaspor at home — creates 0.52, concedes 3.10 · 29 matches

Esenler Erokspor away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.18 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.52 + Esenler Erokspor defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.85

Esenler Erokspor attack 1.71 + Yeni Malatyaspor defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 2.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Yeni Malatyaspor scores more

11%

level

17%

Esenler Erokspor scores more

72%

Esenler Erokspor at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Esenler Erokspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

S. Aytaç

Esenler Erokspor · D

7.7

Match Events

30'

O. Kayode↳ Óscar Pinchi

44'

Halil Atci

46'

M. Güler← H. Atcı

59'

Mehmet Gunes

60'

M. Faye← Óscar Pinchi

60'

64'

69'

73'

73'

73'

89'

89'

J. Fernándes← B. Keser

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

YeniEsenler

Overview

28%Possession72%

6Total Shots20

1Corners8

14Fouls11

Shots

6Total Shots20

1On Target6

4Off Target10

1Blocked4

2Inside Box17

4Outside Box3

Passing

28%Possession72%

207Total Passes539

123Accurate Passes449

59%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls11

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides5