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Yeni Malatyaspor vs Çorum FK — 1. Lig 2018

Yeni Malatyaspor
Yeni Malatyaspor
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Çorum FK
Çorum FK
9/14/20241. Lig1. Lig · Round 5Aktepe Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Yeni Malatyaspor16%
×Draw20%
Çorum FK64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yeni Malatyaspor
0.93
Çorum FK
2.10

Çorum FK creates 126% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 57 away

creates per match

Yeni Malatyaspor
0.67
Çorum FK
1.35

allows per match

Yeni Malatyaspor
2.85
Çorum FK
1.18

finishing

Yeni Malatyaspor+0.00on par
Çorum FK+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yeni Malatyaspor ↓

Çorum FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–211%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Yeni Malatyaspor or draw
36%
Yeni Malatyaspor or Çorum FK
80%
Draw or Çorum FK
84%

Winning margin

Yeni Malatyaspor wins by 2+
5%
Çorum FK wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Yeni Malatyaspor 1+ goals
61%
Yeni Malatyaspor 2+ goals
24%
Yeni Malatyaspor 3+ goals
7%
Çorum FK 1+ goals
88%
Çorum FK 2+ goals
62%
Çorum FK 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Yeni Malatyaspor (draw refunded)
20%
Çorum FK (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yeni Malatyaspor at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.85 · 33 matches

Çorum FK away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.18 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.67 + Çorum FK defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.93

Çorum FK attack 1.35 + Yeni Malatyaspor defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Yeni Malatyaspor scores more
16%
level
20%
Çorum FK scores more
64%

Çorum FK at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Çorum FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Yeni Malatyaspor 0–4 Çorum FK

Çorum FK beat Yeni Malatyaspor 4-0 in 1. Lig on September 14, 2024.

The match was played at Aktepe Stadı in Ankara.