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Yeni Malatyaspor vs Artvin Hopaspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Yeni Malatyaspor
Yeni Malatyaspor
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Artvin Hopaspor
Artvin Hopaspor
11/5/2020Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundYeni Malatya Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Yeni Malatyaspor72%
×Draw18%
Artvin Hopaspor10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yeni Malatyaspor
2.17
Artvin Hopaspor
0.67

Yeni Malatyaspor creates 224% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 4 away

creates per match

Yeni Malatyaspor
2.08
Artvin Hopaspor
0.25

allows per match

Yeni Malatyaspor
1.08
Artvin Hopaspor
2.25

finishing

Yeni Malatyaspor+0.00on par
Artvin Hopaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yeni Malatyaspor ↓

Artvin Hopaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Yeni Malatyaspor or draw
90%
Yeni Malatyaspor or Artvin Hopaspor
82%
Draw or Artvin Hopaspor
28%

Winning margin

Yeni Malatyaspor wins by 2+
47%
Artvin Hopaspor wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Yeni Malatyaspor 1+ goals
89%
Yeni Malatyaspor 2+ goals
64%
Yeni Malatyaspor 3+ goals
36%
Artvin Hopaspor 1+ goals
49%
Artvin Hopaspor 2+ goals
15%
Artvin Hopaspor 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Yeni Malatyaspor (draw refunded)
88%
Artvin Hopaspor (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yeni Malatyaspor at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

Artvin Hopaspor away — creates 0.25, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yeni Malatyaspor attack 2.08 + Artvin Hopaspor defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.17

Artvin Hopaspor attack 0.25 + Yeni Malatyaspor defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Yeni Malatyaspor scores more
72%
level
18%
Artvin Hopaspor scores more
10%

Yeni Malatyaspor at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Yeni Malatyaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yeni Malatyaspor vs Artvin Hopaspor

Yeni Malatyaspor beat Artvin Hopaspor 2-0 in Türkiye Kupası on November 5, 2020.

The match was played at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu in Malatya.