Yeni Malatyaspor 0–3 Ankaragücü: Result & Stats

Yeni Malatyaspor

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Ankaragücü

T. Ciğerci 90+2' (pen)

E. Bekiroğlu 39'

R. Bajić 10'

10/18/2024

1. Lig · Round 9Eryaman Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Yeni Malatyaspor13%

×Draw19%

Ankaragücü68%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yeni MalatyasporExpected goals in this matchAnkaragücü

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.85

2.20

Yeni Malatyaspor

0.85

Ankaragücü

2.20

Ankaragücü creates 159% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 37 away

0.52

creates per match

1.30

3.10

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Yeni Malatyaspor

0.52

Ankaragücü

1.30

allows per match

Yeni Malatyaspor

3.10

Ankaragücü

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yeni Malatyaspor+0.00on par

Ankaragücü+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yeni Malatyaspor ↓

Ankaragücü →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–212%

0–38%

0–45%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Yeni Malatyaspor or draw

32%

Yeni Malatyaspor or Ankaragücü

81%

Draw or Ankaragücü

87%

Winning margin

Yeni Malatyaspor wins by 2+

4%

Ankaragücü wins by 2+

44%

Team goals

Yeni Malatyaspor 1+ goals

57%

Yeni Malatyaspor 2+ goals

21%

Yeni Malatyaspor 3+ goals

5%

Ankaragücü 1+ goals

89%

Ankaragücü 2+ goals

64%

Ankaragücü 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Yeni Malatyaspor (draw refunded)

16%

Ankaragücü (draw refunded)

84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yeni Malatyaspor at home — creates 0.52, concedes 3.10 · 29 matches

Ankaragücü away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.19 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.52 + Ankaragücü defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.85

Ankaragücü attack 1.30 + Yeni Malatyaspor defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Yeni Malatyaspor scores more

13%

level

19%

Ankaragücü scores more

68%

Ankaragücü at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Ankaragücü will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

E. Bekiroğlu

Ankaragücü · M

9.2

Match Events

10'

R. Bajić↳ E. Bekiroğlu

19'

Ferhat Canli

34'

Ali Kaan Güneren

39'

E. Bekiroğlu↳ R. Bajić

52'

Alper Uludağ

56'

N. Schulz← A. Uludağ

70'

R. Saponara← A. Güneren

70'

M. Kesik← K. Varga

73'

B. Yaz← B. Yaman

78'

Atakan Ayna

80'

N. Aydin← C. Akgün

81'

H. Bilazer← D. Rotariu

82'

R. Dadashov← R. Bajić

89'

Nuri Fatih Aydin

89'

Riccardo Saponara

90'

Riccardo SaponaraPenalty confirmed

90+2'

T. CiğerciPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

YeniAnkaragücü

Overview

33%Possession67%

4Total Shots24

2Corners7

10Fouls19

Shots

4Total Shots24

1On Target12

3Off Target10

0Blocked2

1Inside Box16

3Outside Box8

Passing

33%Possession67%

265Total Passes531

191Accurate Passes457

72%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

8Saves0

Discipline

10Fouls19

3Yellow Cards3

4Offsides3