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Yeni Amasyaspor vs Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Yeni Amasyaspor
Yeni Amasyaspor
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu
Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu
8/29/2018Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 1st RoundAmasya 12 Haziran Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Yeni Amasyaspor45%
×Draw21%
Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yeni Amasyaspor
2.07
Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu
1.79

Yeni Amasyaspor creates 16% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Yeni Amasyaspor
2.00
Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu
1.57

allows per match

Yeni Amasyaspor
2.00
Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu
2.14

finishing

Yeni Amasyaspor+0.00on par
Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yeni Amasyaspor ↓

Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Yeni Amasyaspor or draw
66%
Yeni Amasyaspor or Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu
79%
Draw or Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu
55%

Winning margin

Yeni Amasyaspor wins by 2+
25%
Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Yeni Amasyaspor 1+ goals
87%
Yeni Amasyaspor 2+ goals
61%
Yeni Amasyaspor 3+ goals
34%
Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu 1+ goals
83%
Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu 2+ goals
53%
Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Yeni Amasyaspor (draw refunded)
57%
Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yeni Amasyaspor at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yeni Amasyaspor attack 2.00 + Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.07

Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu attack 1.57 + Yeni Amasyaspor defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Yeni Amasyaspor scores more
45%
level
21%
Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu scores more
34%

Yeni Amasyaspor at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Yeni Amasyaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Yeni Amasyaspor 3–1 Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu

Yeni Amasyaspor beat Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu 3-1 in Türkiye Kupası on August 29, 2018.

The match was played at Amasya 12 Haziran Stadyumu in Amasya.