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Yemen U17 vs Guam U17 — AFC U17 Asian Cup 2026

Yemen U17
Yemen U17
FT
10 – 0
HT: 7 – 0
Guam U17
Guam U17
11/24/2025AFC U17 Asian CupAFC U17 Asian Cup · Group Stage - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Yemen U1797%
×Draw2%
Guam U171%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yemen U17
5.96
Guam U17
0.54

Yemen U17 creates 1004% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Yemen U17
4.25
Guam U17
0.33

allows per match

Yemen U17
0.75
Guam U17
7.67

finishing

Yemen U17+0.00on par
Guam U17+0.00on par

Total goals

93%Over
  • Over93
  • Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yemen U17 ↓

Guam U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–11%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–12%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–013%
4–17%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (13%) · grid covers 47% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
93%7%3.5
82%18%4.5
63%37%

Double chance

Yemen U17 or draw
99%
Yemen U17 or Guam U17
98%
Draw or Guam U17
3%

Winning margin

Yemen U17 wins by 2+
92%
Guam U17 wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Yemen U17 1+ goals
100%
Yemen U17 2+ goals
97%
Yemen U17 3+ goals
90%
Guam U17 1+ goals
42%
Guam U17 2+ goals
10%
Guam U17 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Yemen U17 (draw refunded)
99%
Guam U17 (draw refunded)
1%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yemen U17 at home — creates 4.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Guam U17 away — creates 0.33, concedes 7.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yemen U17 attack 4.25 + Guam U17 defence 7.67 → ÷2 → 5.96

Guam U17 attack 0.33 + Yemen U17 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 97%?"

Yemen U17 scores more
97%
level
2%
Guam U17 scores more
1%

Yemen U17 at 97% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 97% does not mean "Yemen U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yemen U17 vs Guam U17

Yemen U17 beat Guam U17 10-0 in AFC U17 Asian Cup on November 24, 2025.