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Yellow Boys Weiler vs Alisontia Steinsel — Cup 2020

Yellow Boys Weiler
Yellow Boys Weiler
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Alisontia Steinsel
Alisontia Steinseladvanced
11/9/2025CupCup · Round of 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Yellow Boys Weiler21%
×Draw19%
Alisontia Steinsel60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yellow Boys Weiler
1.41
Alisontia Steinsel
2.44

Alisontia Steinsel creates 73% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Yellow Boys Weiler
1.57
Alisontia Steinsel
2.88

allows per match

Yellow Boys Weiler
2.00
Alisontia Steinsel
1.25

finishing

Yellow Boys Weiler+0.00on par
Alisontia Steinsel+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yellow Boys Weiler ↓

Alisontia Steinsel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Yellow Boys Weiler or draw
40%
Yellow Boys Weiler or Alisontia Steinsel
81%
Draw or Alisontia Steinsel
79%

Winning margin

Yellow Boys Weiler wins by 2+
9%
Alisontia Steinsel wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Yellow Boys Weiler 1+ goals
76%
Yellow Boys Weiler 2+ goals
41%
Yellow Boys Weiler 3+ goals
17%
Alisontia Steinsel 1+ goals
91%
Alisontia Steinsel 2+ goals
70%
Alisontia Steinsel 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Yellow Boys Weiler (draw refunded)
26%
Alisontia Steinsel (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yellow Boys Weiler at home — creates 1.57, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

Alisontia Steinsel away — creates 2.88, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yellow Boys Weiler attack 1.57 + Alisontia Steinsel defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.41

Alisontia Steinsel attack 2.88 + Yellow Boys Weiler defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Yellow Boys Weiler scores more
21%
level
19%
Alisontia Steinsel scores more
60%

Alisontia Steinsel at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Alisontia Steinsel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yellow Boys Weiler vs Alisontia Steinsel

Alisontia Steinsel beat Yellow Boys Weiler 2-1 in Cup on November 9, 2025.