Yeelen Olympique 1–4 USFAS Bamako: Result & Stats

Yeelen Olympique

FT

1 – 4

USFAS Bamako

5/18/2023

Première Division · Round 18Stade Omnisports de Bougouni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Yeelen Olympique34%

×Draw29%

USFAS Bamako37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yeelen OlympiqueExpected goals in this matchUSFAS Bamako

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.11

Yeelen Olympique

1.06

USFAS Bamako

1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 93 away

1.06

creates per match

0.99

1.23

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Yeelen Olympique

1.06

USFAS Bamako

0.99

allows per match

Yeelen Olympique

1.23

USFAS Bamako

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yeelen Olympique+0.00on par

USFAS Bamako+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yeelen Olympique ↓

USFAS Bamako →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Yeelen Olympique or draw

63%

Yeelen Olympique or USFAS Bamako

71%

Draw or USFAS Bamako

66%

Winning margin

Yeelen Olympique wins by 2+

13%

USFAS Bamako wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Yeelen Olympique 1+ goals

65%

Yeelen Olympique 2+ goals

29%

Yeelen Olympique 3+ goals

9%

USFAS Bamako 1+ goals

67%

USFAS Bamako 2+ goals

30%

USFAS Bamako 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Yeelen Olympique (draw refunded)

48%

USFAS Bamako (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yeelen Olympique at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.23 · 53 matches

USFAS Bamako away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.05 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yeelen Olympique attack 1.06 + USFAS Bamako defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.06

USFAS Bamako attack 0.99 + Yeelen Olympique defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Yeelen Olympique scores more

34%

level

29%

USFAS Bamako scores more

37%

USFAS Bamako at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "USFAS Bamako will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff