Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Yeelen Olympique vs US Bougouba — Première Division 2019

Yeelen Olympique
Yeelen Olympique
FT
1 – 2
US Bougouba
US Bougouba
12/11/2021Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 6Stade Mamadou Konaté

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Yeelen Olympique37%
×Draw29%
US Bougouba35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yeelen Olympique
1.14
US Bougouba
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 57 away

creates per match

Yeelen Olympique
1.06
US Bougouba
0.98

allows per match

Yeelen Olympique
1.23
US Bougouba
1.21

finishing

Yeelen Olympique+0.00on par
US Bougouba+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yeelen Olympique ↓

US Bougouba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Yeelen Olympique or draw
65%
Yeelen Olympique or US Bougouba
71%
Draw or US Bougouba
63%

Winning margin

Yeelen Olympique wins by 2+
15%
US Bougouba wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Yeelen Olympique 1+ goals
68%
Yeelen Olympique 2+ goals
32%
Yeelen Olympique 3+ goals
11%
US Bougouba 1+ goals
67%
US Bougouba 2+ goals
30%
US Bougouba 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Yeelen Olympique (draw refunded)
51%
US Bougouba (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yeelen Olympique at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.23 · 53 matches

US Bougouba away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.21 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yeelen Olympique attack 1.06 + US Bougouba defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.14

US Bougouba attack 0.98 + Yeelen Olympique defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Yeelen Olympique scores more
37%
level
29%
US Bougouba scores more
35%

Yeelen Olympique at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Yeelen Olympique will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Yeelen Olympique 1 – 2 US Bougouba

US Bougouba beat Yeelen Olympique 2-1 in Première Division on December 11, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Mamadou Konaté in Bamako.