Yeelen Olympique 0–3 Stade Malien Bamako

Yeelen Olympique

FT

0 – 3

Stade Malien Bamako

9/9/2020

Première Division · Championship Round - 4Stade 26 Mars

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Yeelen Olympique23%

×Draw29%

Stade Malien Bamako48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yeelen OlympiqueExpected goals in this matchStade Malien Bamako

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.82

1.31

Yeelen Olympique

0.82

Stade Malien Bamako

1.31

Stade Malien Bamako creates 60% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 98 away

1.06

creates per match

1.39

1.23

allows per match

0.59

creates per match

Yeelen Olympique

1.06

Stade Malien Bamako

1.39

allows per match

Yeelen Olympique

1.23

Stade Malien Bamako

0.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yeelen Olympique+0.00on par

Stade Malien Bamako+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yeelen Olympique ↓

Stade Malien Bamako →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–116%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Yeelen Olympique or draw

52%

Yeelen Olympique or Stade Malien Bamako

71%

Draw or Stade Malien Bamako

77%

Winning margin

Yeelen Olympique wins by 2+

7%

Stade Malien Bamako wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Yeelen Olympique 1+ goals

56%

Yeelen Olympique 2+ goals

20%

Yeelen Olympique 3+ goals

5%

Stade Malien Bamako 1+ goals

73%

Stade Malien Bamako 2+ goals

38%

Stade Malien Bamako 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Yeelen Olympique (draw refunded)

33%

Stade Malien Bamako (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yeelen Olympique at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.23 · 53 matches

Stade Malien Bamako away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.59 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yeelen Olympique attack 1.06 + Stade Malien Bamako defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.82

Stade Malien Bamako attack 1.39 + Yeelen Olympique defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Yeelen Olympique scores more

23%

level

29%

Stade Malien Bamako scores more

48%

Stade Malien Bamako at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Stade Malien Bamako will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff