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Yeelen Olympique vs Djoliba — Première Division 2019

Yeelen Olympique
Yeelen Olympique
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Djoliba
Djoliba
7/9/2023Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 30Stade Mamadou Diarra H. de Koulikoro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Yeelen Olympique23%
×Draw29%
Djoliba49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yeelen Olympique
0.80
Djoliba
1.31

Djoliba creates 64% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 95 away

creates per match

Yeelen Olympique
1.06
Djoliba
1.39

allows per match

Yeelen Olympique
1.23
Djoliba
0.54

finishing

Yeelen Olympique+0.00on par
Djoliba+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yeelen Olympique ↓

Djoliba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–116%
0–210%
0–35%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Yeelen Olympique or draw
51%
Yeelen Olympique or Djoliba
71%
Draw or Djoliba
77%

Winning margin

Yeelen Olympique wins by 2+
7%
Djoliba wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Yeelen Olympique 1+ goals
55%
Yeelen Olympique 2+ goals
19%
Yeelen Olympique 3+ goals
5%
Djoliba 1+ goals
73%
Djoliba 2+ goals
38%
Djoliba 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Yeelen Olympique (draw refunded)
32%
Djoliba (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yeelen Olympique at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.23 · 53 matches

Djoliba away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.54 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yeelen Olympique attack 1.06 + Djoliba defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.80

Djoliba attack 1.39 + Yeelen Olympique defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Yeelen Olympique scores more
23%
level
29%
Djoliba scores more
49%

Djoliba at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Djoliba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Première Division: Yeelen Olympique 1–4 Djoliba

Djoliba beat Yeelen Olympique 4-1 in Première Division on July 9, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Mamadou Diarra H. de Koulikoro in Koulikoro.