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Yeelen Olympique vs Bakaridjan — Première Division 2019

Yeelen Olympique
Yeelen Olympique
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bakaridjan
Bakaridjan
4/11/2023Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 14Stade Mamadou Diarra H. de Koulikoro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Yeelen Olympique31%
×Draw30%
Bakaridjan39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yeelen Olympique
0.96
Bakaridjan
1.11

Bakaridjan creates 16% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 93 away

creates per match

Yeelen Olympique
1.06
Bakaridjan
1.00

allows per match

Yeelen Olympique
1.23
Bakaridjan
0.86

finishing

Yeelen Olympique+0.00on par
Bakaridjan+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yeelen Olympique ↓

Bakaridjan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Yeelen Olympique or draw
61%
Yeelen Olympique or Bakaridjan
70%
Draw or Bakaridjan
69%

Winning margin

Yeelen Olympique wins by 2+
11%
Bakaridjan wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Yeelen Olympique 1+ goals
62%
Yeelen Olympique 2+ goals
25%
Yeelen Olympique 3+ goals
7%
Bakaridjan 1+ goals
67%
Bakaridjan 2+ goals
30%
Bakaridjan 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Yeelen Olympique (draw refunded)
44%
Bakaridjan (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yeelen Olympique at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.23 · 53 matches

Bakaridjan away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.86 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yeelen Olympique attack 1.06 + Bakaridjan defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.96

Bakaridjan attack 1.00 + Yeelen Olympique defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Yeelen Olympique scores more
31%
level
30%
Bakaridjan scores more
39%

Bakaridjan at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bakaridjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yeelen Olympique vs Bakaridjan

Bakaridjan beat Yeelen Olympique 1-0 in Première Division on April 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Mamadou Diarra H. de Koulikoro in Koulikoro.