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Yeclano vs UD Caravaca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Yeclano
Yeclano
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
UD Caravaca
UD Caravaca
3/27/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 29Estadio Municipal La Constitución

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Yeclano60%
×Draw22%
UD Caravaca17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yeclano
1.85
UD Caravaca
0.88

Yeclano creates 110% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 83 away

creates per match

Yeclano
2.12
UD Caravaca
1.16

allows per match

Yeclano
0.59
UD Caravaca
1.57

finishing

Yeclano+0.00on par
UD Caravaca+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yeclano ↓

UD Caravaca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Yeclano or draw
83%
Yeclano or UD Caravaca
78%
Draw or UD Caravaca
40%

Winning margin

Yeclano wins by 2+
35%
UD Caravaca wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Yeclano 1+ goals
84%
Yeclano 2+ goals
55%
Yeclano 3+ goals
28%
UD Caravaca 1+ goals
59%
UD Caravaca 2+ goals
22%
UD Caravaca 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Yeclano (draw refunded)
77%
UD Caravaca (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yeclano at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

UD Caravaca away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.57 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yeclano attack 2.12 + UD Caravaca defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.85

UD Caravaca attack 1.16 + Yeclano defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Yeclano scores more
60%
level
22%
UD Caravaca scores more
17%

Yeclano at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Yeclano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Yeclano 1–0 UD Caravaca

Yeclano beat UD Caravaca 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on March 27, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal La Constitución in Yecla.