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Yeclano vs UCAM Murcia II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Yeclano
Yeclano
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
UCAM Murcia II
UCAM Murcia II
11/21/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 13Estadio Municipal La Constitución

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Yeclano53%
×Draw25%
UCAM Murcia II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yeclano
1.63
UCAM Murcia II
0.96

Yeclano creates 70% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 110 away

creates per match

Yeclano
2.12
UCAM Murcia II
1.33

allows per match

Yeclano
0.59
UCAM Murcia II
1.14

finishing

Yeclano+0.00on par
UCAM Murcia II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yeclano ↓

UCAM Murcia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Yeclano or draw
78%
Yeclano or UCAM Murcia II
75%
Draw or UCAM Murcia II
47%

Winning margin

Yeclano wins by 2+
28%
UCAM Murcia II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Yeclano 1+ goals
80%
Yeclano 2+ goals
48%
Yeclano 3+ goals
22%
UCAM Murcia II 1+ goals
62%
UCAM Murcia II 2+ goals
25%
UCAM Murcia II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Yeclano (draw refunded)
70%
UCAM Murcia II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yeclano at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

UCAM Murcia II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.14 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yeclano attack 2.12 + UCAM Murcia II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.63

UCAM Murcia II attack 1.33 + Yeclano defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Yeclano scores more
53%
level
25%
UCAM Murcia II scores more
22%

Yeclano at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Yeclano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Yeclano 1–1 UCAM Murcia II

Yeclano and UCAM Murcia II drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on November 21, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal La Constitución in Yecla.