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Yeclano vs Real Murcia — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Yeclano
Yeclano
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Real Murcia
Real Murcia
1/25/2025Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 21Estadio Municipal La Constitución

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Yeclano34%
×Draw30%
Real Murcia35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yeclano
1.01
Real Murcia
1.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 76 away

creates per match

Yeclano
1.05
Real Murcia
1.18

allows per match

Yeclano
0.89
Real Murcia
0.97

finishing

Yeclano+0.00on par
Real Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yeclano ↓

Real Murcia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Yeclano or draw
65%
Yeclano or Real Murcia
70%
Draw or Real Murcia
66%

Winning margin

Yeclano wins by 2+
13%
Real Murcia wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Yeclano 1+ goals
64%
Yeclano 2+ goals
27%
Yeclano 3+ goals
8%
Real Murcia 1+ goals
64%
Real Murcia 2+ goals
28%
Real Murcia 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Yeclano (draw refunded)
49%
Real Murcia (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yeclano at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Real Murcia away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.97 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yeclano attack 1.05 + Real Murcia defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.01

Real Murcia attack 1.18 + Yeclano defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Yeclano scores more
34%
level
30%
Real Murcia scores more
35%

Real Murcia at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Real Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yeclano vs Real Murcia

Real Murcia beat Yeclano 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 25, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal La Constitución in Yecla.