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Yeclano vs Mazarrón FC — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Yeclano
Yeclano
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mazarrón FC
Mazarrón FC
11/7/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 11Estadio Municipal La Constitución

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Yeclano57%
×Draw24%
Mazarrón FC19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yeclano
1.73
Mazarrón FC
0.90

Yeclano creates 92% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 63 away

creates per match

Yeclano
2.12
Mazarrón FC
1.21

allows per match

Yeclano
0.59
Mazarrón FC
1.33

finishing

Yeclano+0.00on par
Mazarrón FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yeclano ↓

Mazarrón FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Yeclano or draw
81%
Yeclano or Mazarrón FC
76%
Draw or Mazarrón FC
43%

Winning margin

Yeclano wins by 2+
32%
Mazarrón FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Yeclano 1+ goals
82%
Yeclano 2+ goals
52%
Yeclano 3+ goals
25%
Mazarrón FC 1+ goals
59%
Mazarrón FC 2+ goals
23%
Mazarrón FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Yeclano (draw refunded)
75%
Mazarrón FC (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yeclano at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

Mazarrón FC away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.33 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yeclano attack 2.12 + Mazarrón FC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.73

Mazarrón FC attack 1.21 + Yeclano defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Yeclano scores more
57%
level
24%
Mazarrón FC scores more
19%

Yeclano at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Yeclano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Yeclano 2–0 Mazarrón FC

Yeclano beat Mazarrón FC 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on November 7, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal La Constitución in Yecla.