Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Yeclano vs La Unión Atlético — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Yeclano
Yeclano
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
La Unión Atlético
La Unión Atlético
Álvaro 75'
Luispa 40'
3/2/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 22Estadio Municipal La Constitución

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Yeclano56%
×Draw25%
La Unión Atlético20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yeclano
1.62
La Unión Atlético
0.85

Yeclano creates 91% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 45 away

creates per match

Yeclano
2.12
La Unión Atlético
1.11

allows per match

Yeclano
0.59
La Unión Atlético
1.11

finishing

Yeclano+0.00on par
La Unión Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yeclano ↓

La Unión Atlético →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Yeclano or draw
80%
Yeclano or La Unión Atlético
75%
Draw or La Unión Atlético
44%

Winning margin

Yeclano wins by 2+
30%
La Unión Atlético wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Yeclano 1+ goals
80%
Yeclano 2+ goals
48%
Yeclano 3+ goals
22%
La Unión Atlético 1+ goals
57%
La Unión Atlético 2+ goals
21%
La Unión Atlético 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Yeclano (draw refunded)
74%
La Unión Atlético (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yeclano at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

La Unión Atlético away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yeclano attack 2.12 + La Unión Atlético defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.62

La Unión Atlético attack 1.11 + Yeclano defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Yeclano scores more
56%
level
25%
La Unión Atlético scores more
20%

Yeclano at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Yeclano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
Luispa
46'
Chema← Dani Bermejo
46'
Yeray← Schuster
60'
Sergio Jiménez← Belencoso
62'
Manu Costa← Luispa
69'
Álvaro← Álex Melgar
75'
Álvaro
81'
Jorge Martínez← Nico González
83'
Tonete← Antonio Salinas
83'
Marcos Álvarez← Pau Pérez
86'
Álex Jiménez← David Valdeolivas
Yeclano
La
Victor Martinez
Martinez
Adrián Aguirre
Aguirre
Pitu
Pitu
David Valdeolivas
▼
Valdeoliv
A. Simpara
Simpara
Schuster
▼
Schuster
Dani Bermejo
▼
Bermejo
Belencoso
▼
Belencoso
Nico González
▼
González
Omar Saura
Saura
Paco Collados
Collados
Iván Martínez
Martínez
Juanmi
Juanmi
Diego Ruiz
Ruiz
Pablo Serrano
Serrano
Antonio Martínez
Martínez
Marcos Bautista
Bautista
Pablo de Dios
Dios
Antonio Salinas
▼
Salinas
Luispa
⚽
▼
Luispa
Álex Melgar
▼
Melgar
Pau Pérez
▼
Pérez
Adrián Hernández
Manager: Adrián Hernández
62'▲Manu Costa←▼Luispa
69'▲Álvaro←▼Álex Melgar
83'▲Tonete←▼Antonio Salinas
83'▲Marcos Álvarez←▼Pau Pérez

Yeclano substitutes

CostaÁlvaroToneteÁlvarez
Manuel Palomeque
Manager: Manuel Palomeque
46'▲Chema←▼Dani Bermejo
46'▲Yeray←▼Schuster
60'▲Sergio Jiménez←▼Belencoso
81'▲Jorge Martínez←▼Nico González
86'▲Álex Jiménez←▼David Valdeolivas

La Unión Atlético substitutes

ChemaYerayJiménezMartínezJiménez

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Yeclano 2–0 La Unión Atlético

Yeclano beat La Unión Atlético 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on March 2, 2022.

Goals: Luispa (40'), Álvaro (75').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal La Constitución in Yecla.