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Yeclano vs Huércal Overa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Yeclano
Yeclano
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Huércal Overa
Huércal Overa
4/9/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 31Estadio Municipal La Constitución

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Yeclano66%
×Draw21%
Huércal Overa13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yeclano
1.90
Huércal Overa
0.69

Yeclano creates 175% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 47 away

creates per match

Yeclano
2.12
Huércal Overa
0.79

allows per match

Yeclano
0.59
Huércal Overa
1.68

finishing

Yeclano+0.00on par
Huércal Overa+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yeclano ↓

Huércal Overa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Yeclano or draw
87%
Yeclano or Huércal Overa
79%
Draw or Huércal Overa
34%

Winning margin

Yeclano wins by 2+
40%
Huércal Overa wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Yeclano 1+ goals
85%
Yeclano 2+ goals
56%
Yeclano 3+ goals
29%
Huércal Overa 1+ goals
50%
Huércal Overa 2+ goals
15%
Huércal Overa 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Yeclano (draw refunded)
84%
Huércal Overa (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yeclano at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

Huércal Overa away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.68 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yeclano attack 2.12 + Huércal Overa defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.90

Huércal Overa attack 0.79 + Yeclano defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Yeclano scores more
66%
level
21%
Huércal Overa scores more
13%

Yeclano at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Yeclano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Yeclano 3–0 Huércal Overa

Yeclano beat Huércal Overa 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal La Constitución in Yecla.