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Yeclano vs Fuenlabrada — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Yeclano
Yeclano
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Fuenlabrada
Fuenlabrada
9/14/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 4Estadio Municipal La Constitución

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Yeclano44%
×Draw28%
Fuenlabrada28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yeclano
1.31
Fuenlabrada
1.00

Yeclano creates 31% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Yeclano
1.05
Fuenlabrada
1.11

allows per match

Yeclano
0.89
Fuenlabrada
1.58

finishing

Yeclano+0.00on par
Fuenlabrada+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yeclano ↓

Fuenlabrada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Yeclano or draw
72%
Yeclano or Fuenlabrada
72%
Draw or Fuenlabrada
56%

Winning margin

Yeclano wins by 2+
20%
Fuenlabrada wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Yeclano 1+ goals
73%
Yeclano 2+ goals
38%
Yeclano 3+ goals
14%
Fuenlabrada 1+ goals
63%
Fuenlabrada 2+ goals
26%
Fuenlabrada 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Yeclano (draw refunded)
61%
Fuenlabrada (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yeclano at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Fuenlabrada away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yeclano attack 1.05 + Fuenlabrada defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.31

Fuenlabrada attack 1.11 + Yeclano defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Yeclano scores more
44%
level
28%
Fuenlabrada scores more
28%

Yeclano at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Yeclano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yeclano vs Fuenlabrada

Fuenlabrada beat Yeclano 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on September 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal La Constitución in Yecla.