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Yeclano vs Cartagena LU II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Yeclano
Yeclano
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Cartagena LU II
Cartagena LU II
10/10/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 6Estadio Municipal Uva Monastrell

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Yeclano58%
×Draw24%
Cartagena LU II18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yeclano
1.69
Cartagena LU II
0.81

Yeclano creates 109% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

creates per match

Yeclano
2.12
Cartagena LU II
1.04

allows per match

Yeclano
0.59
Cartagena LU II
1.25

finishing

Yeclano+0.00on par
Cartagena LU II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yeclano ↓

Cartagena LU II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Yeclano or draw
82%
Yeclano or Cartagena LU II
76%
Draw or Cartagena LU II
42%

Winning margin

Yeclano wins by 2+
32%
Cartagena LU II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Yeclano 1+ goals
82%
Yeclano 2+ goals
50%
Yeclano 3+ goals
24%
Cartagena LU II 1+ goals
56%
Cartagena LU II 2+ goals
19%
Cartagena LU II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Yeclano (draw refunded)
77%
Cartagena LU II (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yeclano at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

Cartagena LU II away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.25 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yeclano attack 2.12 + Cartagena LU II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.69

Cartagena LU II attack 1.04 + Yeclano defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Yeclano scores more
58%
level
24%
Cartagena LU II scores more
18%

Yeclano at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Yeclano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Yeclano 0–2 Cartagena LU II

Cartagena LU II beat Yeclano 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on October 10, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Uva Monastrell in Jumilla.