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Yeclano vs Cartagena FC — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Yeclano
Yeclano
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cartagena FC
Cartagena FC
1/19/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 18Estadio Municipal La Constitución

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Yeclano60%
×Draw23%
Cartagena FC17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yeclano
1.82
Cartagena FC
0.84

Yeclano creates 117% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 44 away

creates per match

Yeclano
2.12
Cartagena FC
1.09

allows per match

Yeclano
0.59
Cartagena FC
1.52

finishing

Yeclano+0.00on par
Cartagena FC+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yeclano ↓

Cartagena FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Yeclano or draw
83%
Yeclano or Cartagena FC
77%
Draw or Cartagena FC
40%

Winning margin

Yeclano wins by 2+
35%
Cartagena FC wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Yeclano 1+ goals
84%
Yeclano 2+ goals
54%
Yeclano 3+ goals
27%
Cartagena FC 1+ goals
57%
Cartagena FC 2+ goals
21%
Cartagena FC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Yeclano (draw refunded)
78%
Cartagena FC (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yeclano at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

Cartagena FC away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.52 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yeclano attack 2.12 + Cartagena FC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.82

Cartagena FC attack 1.09 + Yeclano defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Yeclano scores more
60%
level
23%
Cartagena FC scores more
17%

Yeclano at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Yeclano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Yeclano 2–0 Cartagena FC

Yeclano beat Cartagena FC 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on January 19, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal La Constitución in Yecla.