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Yeclano vs Archena Sport — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Yeclano
Yeclano
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Archena Sport
Archena Sport
12/4/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 15Estadio Municipal La Constitución

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Yeclano58%
×Draw24%
Archena Sport18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yeclano
1.71
Archena Sport
0.82

Yeclano creates 109% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Yeclano
2.12
Archena Sport
1.06

allows per match

Yeclano
0.59
Archena Sport
1.29

finishing

Yeclano+0.00on par
Archena Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yeclano ↓

Archena Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Yeclano or draw
82%
Yeclano or Archena Sport
76%
Draw or Archena Sport
42%

Winning margin

Yeclano wins by 2+
33%
Archena Sport wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Yeclano 1+ goals
82%
Yeclano 2+ goals
51%
Yeclano 3+ goals
24%
Archena Sport 1+ goals
56%
Archena Sport 2+ goals
20%
Archena Sport 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Yeclano (draw refunded)
77%
Archena Sport (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yeclano at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

Archena Sport away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yeclano attack 2.12 + Archena Sport defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.71

Archena Sport attack 1.06 + Yeclano defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Yeclano scores more
58%
level
24%
Archena Sport scores more
18%

Yeclano at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Yeclano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Yeclano 1–0 Archena Sport

Yeclano beat Archena Sport 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on December 4, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal La Constitución in Yecla.