Yeclano II 0–4 UCAM Murcia II: Result & Stats

Yeclano II

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

UCAM Murcia II

9/20/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 3Campo de la Constitucion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Yeclano II24%

×Draw26%

UCAM Murcia II50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yeclano IIExpected goals in this matchUCAM Murcia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

1.52

Yeclano II

0.95

UCAM Murcia II

1.52

UCAM Murcia II creates 60% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 110 away

0.76

creates per match

1.33

1.71

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Yeclano II

0.76

UCAM Murcia II

1.33

allows per match

Yeclano II

1.71

UCAM Murcia II

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yeclano II+0.00on par

UCAM Murcia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yeclano II ↓

UCAM Murcia II →

0–08%

0–113%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Yeclano II or draw

50%

Yeclano II or UCAM Murcia II

74%

Draw or UCAM Murcia II

76%

Winning margin

Yeclano II wins by 2+

UCAM Murcia II wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Yeclano II 1+ goals

61%

Yeclano II 2+ goals

25%

Yeclano II 3+ goals

UCAM Murcia II 1+ goals

78%

UCAM Murcia II 2+ goals

45%

UCAM Murcia II 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Yeclano II (draw refunded)

32%

UCAM Murcia II (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Yeclano II at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

UCAM Murcia II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.14 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Yeclano II attack 0.76 + UCAM Murcia II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.95

UCAM Murcia II attack 1.33 + Yeclano II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Yeclano II scores more

24%

level

26%

UCAM Murcia II scores more

50%

UCAM Murcia II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "UCAM Murcia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff