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Yeclano II vs Real Murcia II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Yeclano II
Yeclano II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Real Murcia II
Real Murcia II
10/26/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 8Campo de la Constitucion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Yeclano II24%
×Draw26%
Real Murcia II49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yeclano II
0.95
Real Murcia II
1.48

Real Murcia II creates 56% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 111 away

creates per match

Yeclano II
0.76
Real Murcia II
1.24

allows per match

Yeclano II
1.71
Real Murcia II
1.15

finishing

Yeclano II+0.00on par
Real Murcia II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yeclano II ↓

Real Murcia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Yeclano II or draw
51%
Yeclano II or Real Murcia II
74%
Draw or Real Murcia II
76%

Winning margin

Yeclano II wins by 2+
8%
Real Murcia II wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Yeclano II 1+ goals
61%
Yeclano II 2+ goals
25%
Yeclano II 3+ goals
7%
Real Murcia II 1+ goals
77%
Real Murcia II 2+ goals
43%
Real Murcia II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Yeclano II (draw refunded)
33%
Real Murcia II (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yeclano II at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Real Murcia II away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.15 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yeclano II attack 0.76 + Real Murcia II defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.95

Real Murcia II attack 1.24 + Yeclano II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Yeclano II scores more
24%
level
26%
Real Murcia II scores more
49%

Real Murcia II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Real Murcia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Yeclano II 1 – 2 Real Murcia II

Real Murcia II beat Yeclano II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on October 26, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de la Constitucion in Yecla.