Yaypan 1–2 Metalourg: Result & Stats | Pro League A

Yaypan

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Metalourg

M. Muminov 6'

B. Jocic 67'

K. Tozhidinov 17'

4/5/2026

Pro League A · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Yaypan29%

×Draw23%

Metalourg48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

YaypanExpected goals in this matchMetalourg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.81

Yaypan

1.36

Metalourg

1.81

Metalourg creates 33% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.33

creates per match

1.80

1.83

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Yaypan

1.33

Metalourg

1.80

allows per match

Yaypan

1.83

Metalourg

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yaypan+0.00on par

Metalourg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yaypan ↓

Metalourg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Yaypan or draw

52%

Yaypan or Metalourg

77%

Draw or Metalourg

71%

Winning margin

Yaypan wins by 2+

13%

Metalourg wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Yaypan 1+ goals

74%

Yaypan 2+ goals

39%

Yaypan 3+ goals

16%

Metalourg 1+ goals

84%

Metalourg 2+ goals

54%

Metalourg 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Yaypan (draw refunded)

38%

Metalourg (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yaypan at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Metalourg away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yaypan attack 1.33 + Metalourg defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.36

Metalourg attack 1.80 + Yaypan defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Yaypan scores more

29%

level

23%

Metalourg scores more

48%

Metalourg at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Metalourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

M. Muminov

17'

K. Tozhidinov

67'

B. Jocic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff