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Yaypan vs Gazalkent — Pro League A 2026

Yaypan
Yaypan
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Gazalkent
Gazalkent
M. Khabibullaev 1'
A. Hikmatullayev 90'
D. Tojiyev 37'
4/30/2026Pro League APro League A · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Yaypan25%
×Draw22%
Gazalkent52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yaypan
1.27
Gazalkent
1.92

Gazalkent creates 51% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Yaypan
1.33
Gazalkent
2.00

allows per match

Yaypan
1.83
Gazalkent
1.20

finishing

Yaypan+0.00on par
Gazalkent+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 62Under: 3862%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 61No: 3961%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yaypan ↓

Gazalkent →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Yaypan or draw
48%
Yaypan or Gazalkent
78%
Draw or Gazalkent
75%

Winning margin

Yaypan wins by 2+
10%
Gazalkent wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Yaypan 1+ goals
72%
Yaypan 2+ goals
36%
Yaypan 3+ goals
14%
Gazalkent 1+ goals
85%
Gazalkent 2+ goals
57%
Gazalkent 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Yaypan (draw refunded)
33%
Gazalkent (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yaypan at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Gazalkent away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yaypan attack 1.33 + Gazalkent defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Gazalkent attack 2.00 + Yaypan defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Yaypan scores more
25%
level
22%
Gazalkent scores more
52%

Gazalkent at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Gazalkent will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
M. Khabibullaev
37'
D. Tojiyev
82'
J. Abdujabborov
90+2'
M. Miryoqubov
90'
A. Hikmatullayev

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yaypan vs Gazalkent

Gazalkent beat Yaypan 2-1 in Pro League A on April 30, 2026.

Goals: M. Khabibullaev (1'), D. Tojiyev (37'), A. Hikmatullayev (90').