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Yate Town vs Farnham Town — League #60 2026

Yate Town
Yate Town
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Farnham Town
Farnham Town
2/21/2026League #60League #60

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Yate Town39%
×Draw25%
Farnham Town36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yate Town
1.50
Farnham Town
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 13 away

creates per match

Yate Town
2.00
Farnham Town
1.54

allows per match

Yate Town
1.33
Farnham Town
1.00

finishing

Yate Town+0.00on par
Farnham Town+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yate Town ↓

Farnham Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Yate Town or draw
64%
Yate Town or Farnham Town
75%
Draw or Farnham Town
61%

Winning margin

Yate Town wins by 2+
19%
Farnham Town wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Yate Town 1+ goals
78%
Yate Town 2+ goals
44%
Yate Town 3+ goals
19%
Farnham Town 1+ goals
76%
Farnham Town 2+ goals
42%
Farnham Town 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Yate Town (draw refunded)
52%
Farnham Town (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yate Town at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Farnham Town away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yate Town attack 2.00 + Farnham Town defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Farnham Town attack 1.54 + Yate Town defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Yate Town scores more
39%
level
25%
Farnham Town scores more
36%

Yate Town at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Yate Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yate Town vs Farnham Town

Farnham Town beat Yate Town 1-0 in League #60 on February 21, 2026.