Yassy Turkistan 0–1 Khan Tengri: Result & Stats

Yassy Turkistan

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Khan Tengri

9/1/2023

1. Division · Round 22Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Yassy Turkistan37%

×Draw23%

Khan Tengri40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yassy TurkistanExpected goals in this matchKhan Tengri

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.64

Yassy Turkistan

1.56

Khan Tengri

1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 47 away

1.28

creates per match

1.34

1.94

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Yassy Turkistan

1.28

Khan Tengri

1.34

allows per match

Yassy Turkistan

1.94

Khan Tengri

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yassy Turkistan+0.00on par

Khan Tengri+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yassy Turkistan ↓

Khan Tengri →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Yassy Turkistan or draw

60%

Yassy Turkistan or Khan Tengri

77%

Draw or Khan Tengri

63%

Winning margin

Yassy Turkistan wins by 2+

18%

Khan Tengri wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Yassy Turkistan 1+ goals

79%

Yassy Turkistan 2+ goals

46%

Yassy Turkistan 3+ goals

21%

Khan Tengri 1+ goals

81%

Khan Tengri 2+ goals

49%

Khan Tengri 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Yassy Turkistan (draw refunded)

48%

Khan Tengri (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yassy Turkistan at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.94 · 54 matches

Khan Tengri away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.85 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yassy Turkistan attack 1.28 + Khan Tengri defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.56

Khan Tengri attack 1.34 + Yassy Turkistan defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Yassy Turkistan scores more

37%

level

23%

Khan Tengri scores more

40%

Khan Tengri at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Khan Tengri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff