Yarud Mariupol' 2–1 Dinaz Vyshhorod: Result & Stats

Yarud Mariupol'

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Dinaz Vyshhorod

9/8/2023

Persha Liga · Round 7Stadion Kolos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Yarud Mariupol'45%

×Draw26%

Dinaz Vyshhorod29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yarud Mariupol'Expected goals in this matchDinaz Vyshhorod

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.11

Yarud Mariupol'

1.44

Dinaz Vyshhorod

1.11

Yarud Mariupol' creates 30% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 37 away

1.00

creates per match

0.97

1.25

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Yarud Mariupol'

1.00

Dinaz Vyshhorod

0.97

allows per match

Yarud Mariupol'

1.25

Dinaz Vyshhorod

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yarud Mariupol'+0.00on par

Dinaz Vyshhorod+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yarud Mariupol' ↓

Dinaz Vyshhorod →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Yarud Mariupol' or draw

71%

Yarud Mariupol' or Dinaz Vyshhorod

74%

Draw or Dinaz Vyshhorod

55%

Winning margin

Yarud Mariupol' wins by 2+

22%

Dinaz Vyshhorod wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Yarud Mariupol' 1+ goals

76%

Yarud Mariupol' 2+ goals

42%

Yarud Mariupol' 3+ goals

18%

Dinaz Vyshhorod 1+ goals

67%

Dinaz Vyshhorod 2+ goals

30%

Dinaz Vyshhorod 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Yarud Mariupol' (draw refunded)

60%

Dinaz Vyshhorod (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yarud Mariupol' at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 53 matches

Dinaz Vyshhorod away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.89 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yarud Mariupol' attack 1.00 + Dinaz Vyshhorod defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.44

Dinaz Vyshhorod attack 0.97 + Yarud Mariupol' defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Yarud Mariupol' scores more

45%

level

26%

Dinaz Vyshhorod scores more

29%

Yarud Mariupol' at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Yarud Mariupol' will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff