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Yaracuyanos FC vs Zulia FC — Primera División 2018

Yaracuyanos FC
Yaracuyanos FC
CANC
19:30
Zulia FC
Zulia FC
3/15/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 7Estadio Olímpico Florentino Oropeza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Yaracuyanos FC37%
×Draw27%
Zulia FC36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yaracuyanos FC
1.27
Zulia FC
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 66 away

creates per match

Yaracuyanos FC
0.94
Zulia FC
1.06

allows per match

Yaracuyanos FC
1.39
Zulia FC
1.61

finishing

Yaracuyanos FC+0.00on par
Zulia FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yaracuyanos FC ↓

Zulia FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Yaracuyanos FC or draw
64%
Yaracuyanos FC or Zulia FC
73%
Draw or Zulia FC
63%

Winning margin

Yaracuyanos FC wins by 2+
16%
Zulia FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Yaracuyanos FC 1+ goals
72%
Yaracuyanos FC 2+ goals
36%
Yaracuyanos FC 3+ goals
14%
Zulia FC 1+ goals
71%
Zulia FC 2+ goals
35%
Zulia FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Yaracuyanos FC (draw refunded)
51%
Zulia FC (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yaracuyanos FC at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.39 · 36 matches

Zulia FC away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.61 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yaracuyanos FC attack 0.94 + Zulia FC defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.27

Zulia FC attack 1.06 + Yaracuyanos FC defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Yaracuyanos FC scores more
37%
level
27%
Zulia FC scores more
36%

Yaracuyanos FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Yaracuyanos FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Yaracuyanos FC face Zulia FC (Primera División)

Primera División returns with Yaracuyanos FC hosting Zulia FC. Match starts March 15, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Yaracuyanos FC host Zulia FC at Estadio Olímpico Florentino Oropeza.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.