Yaracuyanos FC 2–1 Urena SC: Result & Stats

Yaracuyanos FC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Urena SC

3/22/2024

Segunda División · Apertura - 2Estadio Farid Richa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Yaracuyanos FC49%

×Draw25%

Urena SC26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yaracuyanos FCExpected goals in this matchUrena SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.09

Yaracuyanos FC

1.58

Urena SC

1.09

Yaracuyanos FC creates 45% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 115 away

1.60

creates per match

1.28

0.90

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Yaracuyanos FC

1.60

Urena SC

1.28

allows per match

Yaracuyanos FC

0.90

Urena SC

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yaracuyanos FC+0.00on par

Urena SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yaracuyanos FC ↓

Urena SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Yaracuyanos FC or draw

74%

Yaracuyanos FC or Urena SC

75%

Draw or Urena SC

51%

Winning margin

Yaracuyanos FC wins by 2+

25%

Urena SC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Yaracuyanos FC 1+ goals

79%

Yaracuyanos FC 2+ goals

47%

Yaracuyanos FC 3+ goals

21%

Urena SC 1+ goals

66%

Urena SC 2+ goals

30%

Urena SC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Yaracuyanos FC (draw refunded)

65%

Urena SC (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yaracuyanos FC at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.90 · 77 matches

Urena SC away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.57 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yaracuyanos FC attack 1.60 + Urena SC defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.58

Urena SC attack 1.28 + Yaracuyanos FC defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Yaracuyanos FC scores more

49%

level

25%

Urena SC scores more

26%

Yaracuyanos FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Yaracuyanos FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff