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Urena SC vs Yaracuyanos FC — Segunda División 2018

Urena SC
Urena SC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Yaracuyanos FC
Yaracuyanos FC
C. Navarro 60'
A. Buitrago 64'
5/31/2026Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Urena SC40%
×Draw26%
Yaracuyanos FC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urena SC
1.39
Yaracuyanos FC
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 111 home / 77 away

creates per match

Urena SC
1.52
Yaracuyanos FC
1.47

allows per match

Urena SC
1.06
Yaracuyanos FC
1.26

finishing

Urena SC+0.00on par
Yaracuyanos FC+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urena SC ↓

Yaracuyanos FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Urena SC or draw
66%
Urena SC or Yaracuyanos FC
74%
Draw or Yaracuyanos FC
60%

Winning margin

Urena SC wins by 2+
19%
Yaracuyanos FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Urena SC 1+ goals
75%
Urena SC 2+ goals
40%
Urena SC 3+ goals
16%
Yaracuyanos FC 1+ goals
72%
Yaracuyanos FC 2+ goals
36%
Yaracuyanos FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Urena SC (draw refunded)
54%
Yaracuyanos FC (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urena SC at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.06 · 111 matches

Yaracuyanos FC away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.26 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urena SC attack 1.52 + Yaracuyanos FC defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.39

Yaracuyanos FC attack 1.47 + Urena SC defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Urena SC scores more
40%
level
26%
Yaracuyanos FC scores more
34%

Urena SC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Urena SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

60'
C. Navarro
64'
A. Buitrago
Urena
Yaracuyanos
L. Salah
Manager: L. Salah
Meyder Chourio
Manager: Meyder Chourio

Segunda División: Urena SC 1–1 Yaracuyanos FC

Urena SC and Yaracuyanos FC drew 1-1 in Segunda División on May 31, 2026.

Goals: C. Navarro (60'), A. Buitrago (64').