Yaracuyanos FC 1–4 Maritimo: Result & Stats

Yaracuyanos FC

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 4

Maritimo

7/9/2025

Copa Venezuela · Round 1 - Group CEstadio Florentino Oropeza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Yaracuyanos FC29%

×Draw23%

Maritimo48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yaracuyanos FCExpected goals in this matchMaritimo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.82

Yaracuyanos FC

1.38

Maritimo

1.82

Maritimo creates 32% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

1.00

creates per match

2.25

1.40

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Yaracuyanos FC

1.00

Maritimo

2.25

allows per match

Yaracuyanos FC

1.40

Maritimo

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yaracuyanos FC+0.00on par

Maritimo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yaracuyanos FC ↓

Maritimo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Yaracuyanos FC or draw

52%

Yaracuyanos FC or Maritimo

77%

Draw or Maritimo

71%

Winning margin

Yaracuyanos FC wins by 2+

13%

Maritimo wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Yaracuyanos FC 1+ goals

75%

Yaracuyanos FC 2+ goals

40%

Yaracuyanos FC 3+ goals

16%

Maritimo 1+ goals

84%

Maritimo 2+ goals

54%

Maritimo 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Yaracuyanos FC (draw refunded)

38%

Maritimo (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yaracuyanos FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Maritimo away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yaracuyanos FC attack 1.00 + Maritimo defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Maritimo attack 2.25 + Yaracuyanos FC defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Yaracuyanos FC scores more

29%

level

23%

Maritimo scores more

48%

Maritimo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Maritimo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff