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Yaracuyanos FC vs Llaneros de Guanare — Primera División 2018

Yaracuyanos FC
Yaracuyanos FC
CANC
20:00
Llaneros de Guanare
Llaneros de Guanare
10/7/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 33

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Yaracuyanos FC45%
×Draw23%
Llaneros de Guanare32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yaracuyanos FC
1.72
Llaneros de Guanare
1.42

Yaracuyanos FC creates 21% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 20 away

creates per match

Yaracuyanos FC
0.94
Llaneros de Guanare
1.45

allows per match

Yaracuyanos FC
1.39
Llaneros de Guanare
2.50

finishing

Yaracuyanos FC+0.00on par
Llaneros de Guanare+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yaracuyanos FC ↓

Llaneros de Guanare →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Yaracuyanos FC or draw
68%
Yaracuyanos FC or Llaneros de Guanare
77%
Draw or Llaneros de Guanare
55%

Winning margin

Yaracuyanos FC wins by 2+
24%
Llaneros de Guanare wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Yaracuyanos FC 1+ goals
82%
Yaracuyanos FC 2+ goals
51%
Yaracuyanos FC 3+ goals
25%
Llaneros de Guanare 1+ goals
76%
Llaneros de Guanare 2+ goals
41%
Llaneros de Guanare 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Yaracuyanos FC (draw refunded)
58%
Llaneros de Guanare (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yaracuyanos FC at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.39 · 36 matches

Llaneros de Guanare away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.50 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yaracuyanos FC attack 0.94 + Llaneros de Guanare defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.72

Llaneros de Guanare attack 1.45 + Yaracuyanos FC defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Yaracuyanos FC scores more
45%
level
23%
Llaneros de Guanare scores more
32%

Yaracuyanos FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Yaracuyanos FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Yaracuyanos FC vs Llaneros de Guanare — Match Preview

Yaracuyanos FC face Llaneros de Guanare on October 7, 2020 in this Primera División fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.