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Yaracuyanos FC vs Libertador FC — Segunda División 2018

Yaracuyanos FC
Yaracuyanos FC
FT
4 – 0
Libertador FC
Libertador FC
8/17/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Clausura - 2Estadio Olímpico Florentino Oropeza (San Felipe)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Yaracuyanos FC52%
×Draw27%
Libertador FC21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yaracuyanos FC
1.46
Libertador FC
0.81

Yaracuyanos FC creates 80% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 45 away

creates per match

Yaracuyanos FC
1.58
Libertador FC
0.73

allows per match

Yaracuyanos FC
0.90
Libertador FC
1.33

finishing

Yaracuyanos FC+0.00on par
Libertador FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yaracuyanos FC ↓

Libertador FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Yaracuyanos FC or draw
79%
Yaracuyanos FC or Libertador FC
73%
Draw or Libertador FC
48%

Winning margin

Yaracuyanos FC wins by 2+
26%
Libertador FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Yaracuyanos FC 1+ goals
77%
Yaracuyanos FC 2+ goals
43%
Yaracuyanos FC 3+ goals
18%
Libertador FC 1+ goals
56%
Libertador FC 2+ goals
19%
Libertador FC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Yaracuyanos FC (draw refunded)
72%
Libertador FC (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yaracuyanos FC at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.90 · 79 matches

Libertador FC away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.33 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yaracuyanos FC attack 1.58 + Libertador FC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.46

Libertador FC attack 0.73 + Yaracuyanos FC defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Yaracuyanos FC scores more
52%
level
27%
Libertador FC scores more
21%

Yaracuyanos FC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Yaracuyanos FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yaracuyanos FC vs Libertador FC

Yaracuyanos FC beat Libertador FC 4-0 in Segunda División on August 17, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Florentino Oropeza (San Felipe).