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Yaracuyanos FC vs Fundación Lara Deportiva — Segunda División 2018

Yaracuyanos FC
Yaracuyanos FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fundación Lara Deportiva
Fundación Lara Deportiva
4/5/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 4Estadio Farid Richa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Yaracuyanos FC48%
×Draw27%
Fundación Lara Deportiva25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yaracuyanos FC
1.44
Fundación Lara Deportiva
0.95

Yaracuyanos FC creates 52% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 77 away

creates per match

Yaracuyanos FC
1.58
Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.00

allows per match

Yaracuyanos FC
0.90
Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.30

finishing

Yaracuyanos FC+0.00on par
Fundación Lara Deportiva+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yaracuyanos FC ↓

Fundación Lara Deportiva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Yaracuyanos FC or draw
75%
Yaracuyanos FC or Fundación Lara Deportiva
73%
Draw or Fundación Lara Deportiva
52%

Winning margin

Yaracuyanos FC wins by 2+
24%
Fundación Lara Deportiva wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Yaracuyanos FC 1+ goals
76%
Yaracuyanos FC 2+ goals
42%
Yaracuyanos FC 3+ goals
18%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 1+ goals
61%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 2+ goals
25%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Yaracuyanos FC (draw refunded)
66%
Fundación Lara Deportiva (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yaracuyanos FC at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.90 · 79 matches

Fundación Lara Deportiva away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.30 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yaracuyanos FC attack 1.58 + Fundación Lara Deportiva defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.44

Fundación Lara Deportiva attack 1.00 + Yaracuyanos FC defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Yaracuyanos FC scores more
48%
level
27%
Fundación Lara Deportiva scores more
25%

Yaracuyanos FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Yaracuyanos FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Yaracuyanos FC 1–0 Fundación Lara Deportiva

Yaracuyanos FC beat Fundación Lara Deportiva 1-0 in Segunda División on April 5, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Farid Richa in Barquisimeto.