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Fundación Lara Deportiva vs Yaracuyanos FC — Segunda División 2018

Fundación Lara Deportiva
Fundación Lara Deportiva
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Yaracuyanos FC
Yaracuyanos FC
10/5/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Clausura - 11Estadio Farid Richa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Fundación Lara Deportiva39%
×Draw26%
Yaracuyanos FC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.35
Yaracuyanos FC
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 80 away

creates per match

Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.45
Yaracuyanos FC
1.45

allows per match

Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.11
Yaracuyanos FC
1.26

finishing

Fundación Lara Deportiva+0.00on par
Yaracuyanos FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fundación Lara Deportiva ↓

Yaracuyanos FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Fundación Lara Deportiva or draw
65%
Fundación Lara Deportiva or Yaracuyanos FC
74%
Draw or Yaracuyanos FC
61%

Winning margin

Fundación Lara Deportiva wins by 2+
18%
Yaracuyanos FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Fundación Lara Deportiva 1+ goals
74%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 2+ goals
39%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 3+ goals
15%
Yaracuyanos FC 1+ goals
72%
Yaracuyanos FC 2+ goals
37%
Yaracuyanos FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Fundación Lara Deportiva (draw refunded)
52%
Yaracuyanos FC (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fundación Lara Deportiva at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.11 · 73 matches

Yaracuyanos FC away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.26 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fundación Lara Deportiva attack 1.45 + Yaracuyanos FC defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.35

Yaracuyanos FC attack 1.45 + Fundación Lara Deportiva defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fundación Lara Deportiva scores more
39%
level
26%
Yaracuyanos FC scores more
35%

Fundación Lara Deportiva at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fundación Lara Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Fundación Lara Deportiva 1–0 Yaracuyanos FC

Fundación Lara Deportiva beat Yaracuyanos FC 1-0 in Segunda División on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Farid Richa in Barquisimeto.