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Yaracuyanos FC vs Deportivo La Guaira — Primera División 2018

Yaracuyanos FC
Yaracuyanos FC
CANC
20:00
Deportivo La Guaira
Deportivo La Guaira
5/17/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 15Estadio Olímpico Florentino Oropeza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Yaracuyanos FC30%
×Draw28%
Deportivo La Guaira42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yaracuyanos FC
1.06
Deportivo La Guaira
1.31

Deportivo La Guaira creates 24% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 149 away

creates per match

Yaracuyanos FC
0.94
Deportivo La Guaira
1.24

allows per match

Yaracuyanos FC
1.39
Deportivo La Guaira
1.19

finishing

Yaracuyanos FC+0.00on par
Deportivo La Guaira+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yaracuyanos FC ↓

Deportivo La Guaira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Yaracuyanos FC or draw
58%
Yaracuyanos FC or Deportivo La Guaira
72%
Draw or Deportivo La Guaira
70%

Winning margin

Yaracuyanos FC wins by 2+
12%
Deportivo La Guaira wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Yaracuyanos FC 1+ goals
65%
Yaracuyanos FC 2+ goals
29%
Yaracuyanos FC 3+ goals
9%
Deportivo La Guaira 1+ goals
73%
Deportivo La Guaira 2+ goals
38%
Deportivo La Guaira 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Yaracuyanos FC (draw refunded)
42%
Deportivo La Guaira (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yaracuyanos FC at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.39 · 36 matches

Deportivo La Guaira away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.19 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yaracuyanos FC attack 0.94 + Deportivo La Guaira defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.06

Deportivo La Guaira attack 1.24 + Yaracuyanos FC defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Yaracuyanos FC scores more
30%
level
28%
Deportivo La Guaira scores more
42%

Deportivo La Guaira at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Deportivo La Guaira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Yaracuyanos FC vs Deportivo La Guaira — Match Preview

Yaracuyanos FC face Deportivo La Guaira on May 17, 2020 in this Primera División fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Yaracuyanos FC host Deportivo La Guaira at Estadio Olímpico Florentino Oropeza.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.