Deportivo La Guaira 4–0 Yaracuyanos FC

Deportivo La Guaira

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Yaracuyanos FC

M. Sulbaran 90'

J. Caraballo 90'

A. Uribe 89'

K. Lamadrid 29'

9/21/2025

Primera División · Clausura - 11Estadio Olimpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Deportivo La Guaira52%

×Draw26%

Yaracuyanos FC21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo La GuairaExpected goals in this matchYaracuyanos FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.83

Deportivo La Guaira

1.48

Yaracuyanos FC

0.83

Deportivo La Guaira creates 78% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 36 away

1.49

creates per match

0.78

0.89

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Deportivo La Guaira

1.49

Yaracuyanos FC

0.78

allows per match

Deportivo La Guaira

0.89

Yaracuyanos FC

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo La Guaira+0.00on par

Yaracuyanos FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo La Guaira ↓

Yaracuyanos FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Deportivo La Guaira or draw

79%

Deportivo La Guaira or Yaracuyanos FC

74%

Draw or Yaracuyanos FC

48%

Winning margin

Deportivo La Guaira wins by 2+

27%

Yaracuyanos FC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Deportivo La Guaira 1+ goals

77%

Deportivo La Guaira 2+ goals

43%

Deportivo La Guaira 3+ goals

19%

Yaracuyanos FC 1+ goals

56%

Yaracuyanos FC 2+ goals

20%

Yaracuyanos FC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Deportivo La Guaira (draw refunded)

71%

Yaracuyanos FC (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo La Guaira at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.89 · 150 matches

Yaracuyanos FC away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.47 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo La Guaira attack 1.49 + Yaracuyanos FC defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.48

Yaracuyanos FC attack 0.78 + Deportivo La Guaira defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Deportivo La Guaira scores more

52%

level

26%

Yaracuyanos FC scores more

21%

Deportivo La Guaira at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Deportivo La Guaira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

K. Lamadrid↳ C. Faya

43'

46'

C. Vargas← M. Canon

46'

L. Alvarez← V. Viez

49'

60'

F. Flores← J. Castellanos

63'

J. Torres← M. Labranche

64'

72'

E. E. Fereira Penaranda← L. Pena

72'

M. Sulbaran← J. Perdomo

73'

V. H. Navas Barrera← A. Campaz

82'

83'

86'

A. Uribe← J. Meza

86'

J. Caraballo← Y. Rivas

89'

A. Uribe↳ M. Sulbaran

90'

M. Sulbaran↳ E. E. Fereira Penaranda

90'

J. Caraballo

Deportivo

Yaracuyanos

31

Ojeda

17

Ibarguen

3

▼

19

4

8

15

14

▼

Canon

9

Perez

99

▼

Viez

29

▼

Campaz

1

Varela

16

▼

Pena

20

Gutierrez

23

A

Faya

4

Rivero

30

Peralta

10

▼

Castellan

24

▼

Perdomo

18

▼

Rivas

7

▼

Meza

21

⚽

Lamadrid

Manager: Juan Domingo Tolisano

60'▲F. Flores←▼J. Castellanos

72'▲E. E. Fereira Penaranda←▼L. Pena

72'▲M. Sulbaran←▼J. Perdomo

86'▲A. Uribe←▼J. Meza

86'▲J. Caraballo←▼Y. Rivas

Deportivo La Guaira substitutes

99Sanchez2Penaranda3Osorio5Osio6Flores9Uribe11Arias14Silva22Sulbaran31Castillo53Dolgetta70Caraballo

Manager: Arnaldo del Valle Aranda Rodríguez

46'▲C. Vargas←▼M. Canon

46'▲L. Alvarez←▼V. Viez

63'▲J. Torres←▼M. Labranche

73'▲V. H. Navas Barrera←▼A. Campaz

Yaracuyanos FC substitutes

12Ramirez6Mendoza7Vargas10Torres11Garzon16Gonzalez20Ordonez42Alvarez88Barrera