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Yaracuyanos FC vs CD Hermanos Colmenarez — Segunda División 2018

Yaracuyanos FC
Yaracuyanos FC
FT
1 – 2
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
9/19/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Clausura - 10Estadio Olímpico Florentino Oropeza (San Felipe)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Yaracuyanos FC47%
×Draw25%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yaracuyanos FC
1.61
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.20

Yaracuyanos FC creates 34% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 37 away

creates per match

Yaracuyanos FC
1.58
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.49

allows per match

Yaracuyanos FC
0.90
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.65

finishing

Yaracuyanos FC+0.00on par
CD Hermanos Colmenarez+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yaracuyanos FC ↓

CD Hermanos Colmenarez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Yaracuyanos FC or draw
72%
Yaracuyanos FC or CD Hermanos Colmenarez
75%
Draw or CD Hermanos Colmenarez
53%

Winning margin

Yaracuyanos FC wins by 2+
24%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Yaracuyanos FC 1+ goals
80%
Yaracuyanos FC 2+ goals
48%
Yaracuyanos FC 3+ goals
22%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 1+ goals
70%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 2+ goals
34%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Yaracuyanos FC (draw refunded)
62%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yaracuyanos FC at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.90 · 79 matches

CD Hermanos Colmenarez away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.65 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yaracuyanos FC attack 1.58 + CD Hermanos Colmenarez defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.61

CD Hermanos Colmenarez attack 1.49 + Yaracuyanos FC defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Yaracuyanos FC scores more
47%
level
25%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez scores more
28%

Yaracuyanos FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Yaracuyanos FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yaracuyanos FC vs CD Hermanos Colmenarez

CD Hermanos Colmenarez beat Yaracuyanos FC 2-1 in Segunda División on September 19, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Florentino Oropeza (San Felipe).