Yaracuy FC 1–0 Rayo Zuliano: Result & Stats

Yaracuy FC

FT

1 – 0

Rayo Zuliano

9/4/2021

Segunda División · Round 10Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Yaracuy FC50%

×Draw26%

Rayo Zuliano24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yaracuy FCExpected goals in this matchRayo Zuliano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.00

Yaracuy FC

1.55

Rayo Zuliano

1.00

Yaracuy FC creates 55% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 21 away

1.77

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Yaracuy FC

1.77

Rayo Zuliano

1.00

allows per match

Yaracuy FC

1.00

Rayo Zuliano

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yaracuy FC+0.00on par

Rayo Zuliano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yaracuy FC ↓

Rayo Zuliano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Yaracuy FC or draw

76%

Yaracuy FC or Rayo Zuliano

74%

Draw or Rayo Zuliano

50%

Winning margin

Yaracuy FC wins by 2+

26%

Rayo Zuliano wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Yaracuy FC 1+ goals

79%

Yaracuy FC 2+ goals

46%

Yaracuy FC 3+ goals

20%

Rayo Zuliano 1+ goals

63%

Rayo Zuliano 2+ goals

26%

Rayo Zuliano 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Yaracuy FC (draw refunded)

67%

Rayo Zuliano (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yaracuy FC at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.00 · 47 matches

Rayo Zuliano away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yaracuy FC attack 1.77 + Rayo Zuliano defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.55

Rayo Zuliano attack 1.00 + Yaracuy FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Yaracuy FC scores more

50%

level

26%

Rayo Zuliano scores more

24%

Yaracuy FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Yaracuy FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff