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Yaracuy FC vs Petrolero de Anzoategui — Segunda División 2018

Yaracuy FC
Yaracuy FC
FT
4 – 2
Petrolero de Anzoategui
Petrolero de Anzoategui
4/12/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 2Estadio Olímpico Florentino Oropeza (San Felipe)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Yaracuy FC52%
×Draw24%
Petrolero de Anzoategui24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yaracuy FC
1.68
Petrolero de Anzoategui
1.06

Yaracuy FC creates 58% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 31 away

creates per match

Yaracuy FC
1.77
Petrolero de Anzoategui
1.13

allows per match

Yaracuy FC
1.00
Petrolero de Anzoategui
1.58

finishing

Yaracuy FC+0.00on par
Petrolero de Anzoategui+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yaracuy FC ↓

Petrolero de Anzoategui →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Yaracuy FC or draw
76%
Yaracuy FC or Petrolero de Anzoategui
76%
Draw or Petrolero de Anzoategui
48%

Winning margin

Yaracuy FC wins by 2+
28%
Petrolero de Anzoategui wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Yaracuy FC 1+ goals
81%
Yaracuy FC 2+ goals
50%
Yaracuy FC 3+ goals
24%
Petrolero de Anzoategui 1+ goals
65%
Petrolero de Anzoategui 2+ goals
29%
Petrolero de Anzoategui 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Yaracuy FC (draw refunded)
68%
Petrolero de Anzoategui (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yaracuy FC at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.00 · 47 matches

Petrolero de Anzoategui away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.58 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yaracuy FC attack 1.77 + Petrolero de Anzoategui defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.68

Petrolero de Anzoategui attack 1.13 + Yaracuy FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Yaracuy FC scores more
52%
level
24%
Petrolero de Anzoategui scores more
24%

Yaracuy FC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Yaracuy FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Yaracuy FC 4–2 Petrolero de Anzoategui

Yaracuy FC beat Petrolero de Anzoategui 4-2 in Segunda División on April 12, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Florentino Oropeza (San Felipe).