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Yaracuy FC vs Llaneros de Guanare — Segunda División 2018

Yaracuy FC
Yaracuy FC
PST
19:30
Llaneros de Guanare
Llaneros de Guanare
6/26/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 7Estadio Olímpico Florentino Oropeza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Yaracuy FC53%
×Draw25%
Llaneros de Guanare22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yaracuy FC
1.65
Llaneros de Guanare
0.97

Yaracuy FC creates 70% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 43 away

creates per match

Yaracuy FC
1.77
Llaneros de Guanare
0.93

allows per match

Yaracuy FC
1.00
Llaneros de Guanare
1.53

finishing

Yaracuy FC+0.00on par
Llaneros de Guanare+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yaracuy FC ↓

Llaneros de Guanare →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Yaracuy FC or draw
78%
Yaracuy FC or Llaneros de Guanare
75%
Draw or Llaneros de Guanare
47%

Winning margin

Yaracuy FC wins by 2+
29%
Llaneros de Guanare wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Yaracuy FC 1+ goals
81%
Yaracuy FC 2+ goals
49%
Yaracuy FC 3+ goals
23%
Llaneros de Guanare 1+ goals
62%
Llaneros de Guanare 2+ goals
25%
Llaneros de Guanare 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Yaracuy FC (draw refunded)
71%
Llaneros de Guanare (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yaracuy FC at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.00 · 47 matches

Llaneros de Guanare away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.53 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yaracuy FC attack 1.77 + Llaneros de Guanare defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.65

Llaneros de Guanare attack 0.93 + Yaracuy FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Yaracuy FC scores more
53%
level
25%
Llaneros de Guanare scores more
22%

Yaracuy FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Yaracuy FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Yaracuy FC vs Llaneros de Guanare — Match Preview

Yaracuy FC face Llaneros de Guanare on June 26, 2021 in this Segunda División fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Yaracuy FC host Llaneros de Guanare at Estadio Olímpico Florentino Oropeza.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.