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Llaneros de Guanare vs Yaracuy FC — Segunda División 2018

Llaneros de Guanare
Llaneros de Guanare
FT
1 – 2
Yaracuy FC
Yaracuy FC
10/16/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 18Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Llaneros de Guanare36%
×Draw26%
Yaracuy FC39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llaneros de Guanare
1.33
Yaracuy FC
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 47 away

creates per match

Llaneros de Guanare
1.33
Yaracuy FC
1.30

allows per match

Llaneros de Guanare
1.48
Yaracuy FC
1.34

finishing

Llaneros de Guanare+0.00on par
Yaracuy FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llaneros de Guanare ↓

Yaracuy FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Llaneros de Guanare or draw
61%
Llaneros de Guanare or Yaracuy FC
74%
Draw or Yaracuy FC
64%

Winning margin

Llaneros de Guanare wins by 2+
16%
Yaracuy FC wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Llaneros de Guanare 1+ goals
74%
Llaneros de Guanare 2+ goals
38%
Llaneros de Guanare 3+ goals
15%
Yaracuy FC 1+ goals
75%
Yaracuy FC 2+ goals
40%
Yaracuy FC 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Llaneros de Guanare (draw refunded)
48%
Yaracuy FC (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llaneros de Guanare at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.48 · 42 matches

Yaracuy FC away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.34 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llaneros de Guanare attack 1.33 + Yaracuy FC defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.33

Yaracuy FC attack 1.30 + Llaneros de Guanare defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Llaneros de Guanare scores more
36%
level
26%
Yaracuy FC scores more
39%

Yaracuy FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Yaracuy FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Llaneros de Guanare vs Yaracuy FC

Yaracuy FC beat Llaneros de Guanare 2-1 in Segunda División on October 16, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto in Guanare.