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Yaracuy FC vs Fundación Lara Deportiva — Segunda División 2018

Yaracuy FC
Yaracuy FC
CANC
00:00
Fundación Lara Deportiva
Fundación Lara Deportiva
4/1/2020Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Yaracuy FC50%
×Draw26%
Fundación Lara Deportiva25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yaracuy FC
1.54
Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.00

Yaracuy FC creates 54% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 77 away

creates per match

Yaracuy FC
1.77
Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.00

allows per match

Yaracuy FC
1.00
Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.30

finishing

Yaracuy FC+0.00on par
Fundación Lara Deportiva+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yaracuy FC ↓

Fundación Lara Deportiva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Yaracuy FC or draw
75%
Yaracuy FC or Fundación Lara Deportiva
74%
Draw or Fundación Lara Deportiva
50%

Winning margin

Yaracuy FC wins by 2+
26%
Fundación Lara Deportiva wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Yaracuy FC 1+ goals
79%
Yaracuy FC 2+ goals
45%
Yaracuy FC 3+ goals
20%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 1+ goals
63%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 2+ goals
26%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Yaracuy FC (draw refunded)
67%
Fundación Lara Deportiva (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yaracuy FC at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.00 · 47 matches

Fundación Lara Deportiva away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.30 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yaracuy FC attack 1.77 + Fundación Lara Deportiva defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.54

Fundación Lara Deportiva attack 1.00 + Yaracuy FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Yaracuy FC scores more
50%
level
26%
Fundación Lara Deportiva scores more
25%

Yaracuy FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Yaracuy FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Yaracuy FC host Fundación Lara Deportiva

April 1, 2020: Yaracuy FC take on Fundación Lara Deportiva in Segunda División. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.