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Yaracuy FC vs Atletico el Vigia FC — Segunda División 2018

Yaracuy FC
Yaracuy FC
FT
1 – 1
Atletico el Vigia FC
Atletico el Vigia FC
9/29/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 15Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Yaracuy FC55%
×Draw24%
Atletico el Vigia FC21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yaracuy FC
1.75
Atletico el Vigia FC
0.98

Yaracuy FC creates 79% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 104 away

creates per match

Yaracuy FC
1.77
Atletico el Vigia FC
0.97

allows per match

Yaracuy FC
1.00
Atletico el Vigia FC
1.72

finishing

Yaracuy FC+0.00on par
Atletico el Vigia FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yaracuy FC ↓

Atletico el Vigia FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Yaracuy FC or draw
79%
Yaracuy FC or Atletico el Vigia FC
76%
Draw or Atletico el Vigia FC
45%

Winning margin

Yaracuy FC wins by 2+
31%
Atletico el Vigia FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Yaracuy FC 1+ goals
83%
Yaracuy FC 2+ goals
52%
Yaracuy FC 3+ goals
25%
Atletico el Vigia FC 1+ goals
62%
Atletico el Vigia FC 2+ goals
26%
Atletico el Vigia FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Yaracuy FC (draw refunded)
72%
Atletico el Vigia FC (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yaracuy FC at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.00 · 47 matches

Atletico el Vigia FC away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.72 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yaracuy FC attack 1.77 + Atletico el Vigia FC defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.75

Atletico el Vigia FC attack 0.97 + Yaracuy FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Yaracuy FC scores more
55%
level
24%
Atletico el Vigia FC scores more
21%

Yaracuy FC at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Yaracuy FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Yaracuy FC 1–1 Atletico el Vigia FC

Yaracuy FC and Atletico el Vigia FC drew 1-1 in Segunda División on September 29, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto in Guanare.