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Yaracuy FC vs Angostura FC — Segunda División 2018

Yaracuy FC
Yaracuy FC
FT
2 – 2
Angostura FC
Angostura FC
11/29/2020Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Championship Round - 9Estadio Farid Richa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Yaracuy FC49%
×Draw26%
Angostura FC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yaracuy FC
1.52
Angostura FC
1.02

Yaracuy FC creates 49% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 74 away

creates per match

Yaracuy FC
1.77
Angostura FC
1.05

allows per match

Yaracuy FC
1.00
Angostura FC
1.28

finishing

Yaracuy FC+0.00on par
Angostura FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yaracuy FC ↓

Angostura FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Yaracuy FC or draw
75%
Yaracuy FC or Angostura FC
74%
Draw or Angostura FC
51%

Winning margin

Yaracuy FC wins by 2+
25%
Angostura FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Yaracuy FC 1+ goals
78%
Yaracuy FC 2+ goals
45%
Yaracuy FC 3+ goals
20%
Angostura FC 1+ goals
64%
Angostura FC 2+ goals
27%
Angostura FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Yaracuy FC (draw refunded)
66%
Angostura FC (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yaracuy FC at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.00 · 47 matches

Angostura FC away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.28 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yaracuy FC attack 1.77 + Angostura FC defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.52

Angostura FC attack 1.05 + Yaracuy FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Yaracuy FC scores more
49%
level
26%
Angostura FC scores more
25%

Yaracuy FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Yaracuy FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Yaracuy FC 2–2 Angostura FC

Yaracuy FC and Angostura FC drew 2-2 in Segunda División on November 29, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Farid Richa in Barquisimeto.