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Yapei vs Wa Power — Division One League 2025

Yapei
Yapei
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Wa Power
Wa Power
11/30/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Yapei56%
×Draw24%
Wa Power20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yapei
1.72
Wa Power
0.92

Yapei creates 87% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Yapei
1.86
Wa Power
1.14

allows per match

Yapei
0.71
Wa Power
1.57

finishing

Yapei+0.00on par
Wa Power+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yapei ↓

Wa Power →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Yapei or draw
80%
Yapei or Wa Power
76%
Draw or Wa Power
44%

Winning margin

Yapei wins by 2+
31%
Wa Power wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Yapei 1+ goals
82%
Yapei 2+ goals
51%
Yapei 3+ goals
25%
Wa Power 1+ goals
60%
Wa Power 2+ goals
23%
Wa Power 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Yapei (draw refunded)
74%
Wa Power (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yapei at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Wa Power away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yapei attack 1.86 + Wa Power defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.72

Wa Power attack 1.14 + Yapei defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Yapei scores more
56%
level
24%
Wa Power scores more
20%

Yapei at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Yapei will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yapei vs Wa Power

Yapei and Wa Power drew 1-1 in Division One League on November 30, 2025.