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Yapei vs TF Exponential — Division One League 2025

Yapei
Yapei
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
TF Exponential
TF Exponential
11/1/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Yapei70%
×Draw19%
TF Exponential11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yapei
2.11
TF Exponential
0.68

Yapei creates 210% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Yapei
1.86
TF Exponential
0.64

allows per match

Yapei
0.71
TF Exponential
2.36

finishing

Yapei+0.00on par
TF Exponential+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yapei ↓

TF Exponential →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Yapei or draw
89%
Yapei or TF Exponential
81%
Draw or TF Exponential
30%

Winning margin

Yapei wins by 2+
45%
TF Exponential wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Yapei 1+ goals
88%
Yapei 2+ goals
62%
Yapei 3+ goals
35%
TF Exponential 1+ goals
49%
TF Exponential 2+ goals
15%
TF Exponential 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Yapei (draw refunded)
87%
TF Exponential (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yapei at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

TF Exponential away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yapei attack 1.86 + TF Exponential defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.11

TF Exponential attack 0.64 + Yapei defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Yapei scores more
70%
level
19%
TF Exponential scores more
11%

Yapei at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Yapei will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yapei vs TF Exponential

Yapei beat TF Exponential 3-1 in Division One League on November 1, 2025.