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Yapei vs Tamale City — Division One League 2025

Yapei
Yapei
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Tamale City
Tamale City
12/21/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Yapei50%
×Draw26%
Tamale City24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yapei
1.47
Tamale City
0.92

Yapei creates 60% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Yapei
1.86
Tamale City
1.14

allows per match

Yapei
0.71
Tamale City
1.07

finishing

Yapei+0.00on par
Tamale City+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yapei ↓

Tamale City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Yapei or draw
76%
Yapei or Tamale City
74%
Draw or Tamale City
50%

Winning margin

Yapei wins by 2+
25%
Tamale City wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Yapei 1+ goals
77%
Yapei 2+ goals
43%
Yapei 3+ goals
18%
Tamale City 1+ goals
60%
Tamale City 2+ goals
23%
Tamale City 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Yapei (draw refunded)
68%
Tamale City (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yapei at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Tamale City away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yapei attack 1.86 + Tamale City defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.47

Tamale City attack 1.14 + Yapei defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Yapei scores more
50%
level
26%
Tamale City scores more
24%

Yapei at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Yapei will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yapei vs Tamale City

Yapei and Tamale City drew 1-1 in Division One League on December 21, 2025.